The U.S. Global Trade Deficit Remains High, Manufacturing Jobs Are Down, Industrial Growth Is Mixed

Washington, D.C. – While on the campaign trail and in his presidential trade policy announcements since, Donald Trump has promised to rebuild American manufacturing and create more American industrial jobs by reducing the U.S. trade deficit. Today’s release of 2025 trade data and manufacturing indices that measure the first year of Trump’s second term allow us to begin measuring how his policies are affecting key trade and manufacturing outcomes.

Some highlights from the report available at https://rethinktrade.org/trumptrademanufacturing/

• Contrary to Donald Trump’s tariff “Liberation Day” promise that “jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country,” during his first 11 months back in office, the U.S. lost 88,000 more manufacturing jobs as the U.S. global trade deficit remained huge and other measures of manufacturing growth were mixed.
• The 2025 U.S. manufactured goods trade deficit increased $62 billion — 3.9% — compared to 2024 reaching a monthly total of over $300 billion for the first time in March 2025.
  • The broader full-year 2025 U.S. trade in goods balance data show little change comparing 2025 to 2024 but did register a 4/10s of one percent drop ($5.3 billion.) (Press reports using raw data noted that the goods trade deficit increased slightly, but the inflation-controlled data show a tiny decline.)
  • The full year U.S. goods and services deficit was $914.3 billion in 2025 relative to $938.5 billion in 2024, a decrease of 2.6% attributable mainly to growth in the U.S. services trade surplus.
  • On a month-to-month basis the 2025 data vary more than usual, which probably reflects ever-changing tariff policies and importers’ related strategies, The fluctuations in policy and data make it hard to discern trends.
• The 2025 annual trade and manufacturing data show that Donald Trump has not delivered the boom in American manufacturing jobs and capacity that we need and he promised. While U.S. manufacturing employment steadily decreased in 2025, some other measures of manufacturing activity present a more varied picture: In the first half of 2025 all U.S. manufacturing indicators were in decline, and some measures remain negative, but others — particularly in the third and fourth quarters — point to strengthening conditions. We will track this data closely for our Q1 2026 analysis. Still, to date there is no evidence of Trump’s promised broad-based resurgence in U.S. manufacturing.

Read the full analysis with charts and data at https://rethinktrade.org/trumptrademanufacturing/

Rethink Trade is a program of the American Economic Liberties Project.

Learn more about Economic Liberties and Rethink Trade.

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The American Economic Liberties Project works to ensure America’s system of commerce is structured to advance, rather than undermine, economic liberty, fair commerce, and a secure, inclusive democracy. Economic Liberties believes true economic liberty means entrepreneurs and businesses large and small succeed on the merits of their ideas and hard work; commerce empowers consumers, workers, farmers, and engineers instead of subjecting them to discrimination and abuse from financiers and monopolists; international trade arrangements that promote balanced trade and benefit workers, farmers and small businesses; and wealth is broadly distributed to support equitable political power.