Trump Administration Promised a Manufacturing Revival in 2026. Just Released First-Half Data Show It Isn’t Happening
U.S. industrial employment down 75,000 since Trump’s return, manufactured goods trade deficit bigger than pre-Trump as overall deficit narrowed mainly because of more silver, gold, LNG commodity exports. Shipments of U.S.-made goods only bright spot
Washington, D.C. – A first-half 2026 analysis of newly-released trade and manufacturing data shows that despite more than a year of Trump’s tariff regime, the U.S. manufactured goods trade deficit is 5% wider than in the same period before Trump took office, according to Rethink Trade.
Candidate Donald Trump rode the working-class vote back into the White House with promises that tariffs would speedily rebalance U.S. trade and rebuild American manufacturing. In November 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted 2026 would be a “blockbuster” year for the U.S. economy, including a manufacturing comeback. But the data doesn’t bear that out.
Since Trump’s return to office, the United States has lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs. Construction spending on manufacturing facilities has fallen 30% since Trump’s 2025 inauguration. Compared with the first half of 2024, before Trump returned to office, the U.S. manufactured goods trade deficit widened in the first half of 2026. And although the overall U.S. goods and services trade deficit narrowed, the improvement was driven largely by increased exports of commodities such as gold, oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), rather than by stronger manufacturing performance. The lone bright spot is shipments of U.S.-made durable goods, which grew steadily — albeit modestly — throughout 2025 and continued to edge upward during the first half of 2026.
“The new data showing manufacturing jobs down and the industrial goods trade deficit wider, matches what public opinion polls are already capturing. We have a growing gap between the economy Trump promised and the damage his tariff-malpractice is causing” said Lori Wallach, Director of the Rethink Trade program at the American Economic Liberties Project.
For a full analysis of today’s new trade data and other recently-released manufacturing figures and graphics, see our new memo here.
For graphics and a full analysis of today’s new trade data and other recently-released manufacturing figures, see our memo here.
Rethink Trade is a program of the American Economic Liberties Project.
Learn more about Economic Liberties and Rethink Trade.